A Different Type of Newsletter
can foretell the future. If people knew forthcoming major events they
wouldn't tell you about it - they would be too busy making money on
their own account. But future outcomes from events greatly affects the
value of assets. And valuations can move in unpredicted ways depending
on three things: the nature of the events; whether they were anticipated
and to what degree; and, what was already priced in markets.
newsletter concentrates on the first of these factors - the economics
of events or scenarios. In so doing, it also sheds light on the second
two issues. While we can't foretell the future at least we can point out
various scenarios and trace their implications for world financial and
goods markets. Finding scenarios is easy enough - the hard bit is to
trace through the policy response and global ramifications in a
theoretically consistent way.
Major global changes create
repercussions that are felt around the world. All economies and markets
are linked - all too often in surprising ways. There are so many
ramifications from major events, some reinforcing, some conflicting,
that it is not possible to determine a priori what outcomes might occur without resort to an integrated theoretically consistent framework. That is what we do.
model used here is unique in the world but don't take our word for
that. It is not a black-box, it is theoretically sound, consistent with
mainstream economics and is fully documented for anyone to interrogate. More about the model
How to Use These Scenarios
scenarios are just that: scenarios. They are not forecasts. We do not
know for sure whether the events portrayed here will happen. Also, if
the scenario is widely appreciated now, action may already be underway
that will change outcomes.
We have our ideas on the probability
of these scenarios occurring. But you need to form your own judgement of
the probability of these events, or some variation occurring. Next,
decide what may be priced in markets already then adjust your portfolio.
The value of these scenarios is the insights you gain so you can decide
whether assets are overprices or underpriced. For your own tailor-made
scenario contact us on www.economicscenarios.com.
Who Will Find This Product Useful?
whose role it is to make strategic decisions affecting their company’s
financial performance will find this newsletter useful. It will appeal
to people who appreciate the complexities of international economics and
the importance of tracking literally hundreds of linkages and
interactions in a global economywide framework.
One of the
frequent mistakes strategic analysts can make is to ignore the
‘adding-up’ condition — that someone’s borrowing is someone’s lending,
that someone’s extra exports are some other country’s extra imports and
that expectations about the future affect today’s decisions. People with
a background in international trade and finance or those familiar with
general equilibrium theory will more readily appreciate the findings
here. The model used here is leading edge — it is internally
theoretically consistent and reflects contemporary mainstream economic
theory. The authors have internationally recognised professional
More about the model
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